Kotkin beats up on cities again
The War Against Suburbia
"Suburbia, the preferred way of life across the advanced capitalist world, is under an unprecedented attack -- one that seeks to replace single-family residences and shopping centers with an "anti-sprawl" model beloved of planners and environmental activists.
Response: "Unprecedented attack?" "Replacing" single-family homes? Kotkin implies, without saying so, that Big Brother is going to tear down your house to build high rises.
"The latest battleground is Los Angeles, which gave birth to the suburban metropolis. Many in the political, planning and media elites are itching to use the regulatory process to turn L.A. from a sprawling collection of low-rise communities into a dense, multistory metropolis on the order of New York or Chicago. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has outlined this vision, and it does not conform to the way that most Angelenos prefer to live: "This old concept that all of us are going to live in a three-bedroom home, you know this 2,500 square feet, with a big frontyard and a big backyard -- well, that's an old concept."
My response: It may be an "old concept" but Kotkin fails to show exactly how Villaraigosa can possibly "use the regulatory process" to impose this vision.
If developers don't want to build "dense, multistory" dwellings, there's nothing Villaraigosa can do to make them do so. All he can do is unshackle the private sector to do so if it likes.
"This kind of imposed "vision" is proliferating in major metropolitan regions around the world. From Australia to Great Britain (and points in between), there is a drive to use the public purse to expand often underused train systems, downtown condominiums, hotels, convention centers, sports stadia and "star-chitect"-designed art museums, often at the expense of smaller business, single-family neighborhoods and local shopping areas."
Government has been subsidizing public works such as art museums and convention centers for decades- and the beneficiaries (and often leading supporters) of such public works are often the people who live in the single-family neighborhoods. The notion that, say, an art museum is somehow part of a "war" on the suburbanites who use it is simply twisted.
I think Kotkin is trying to say that the relationship between downtown and suburbs is a zero-sum game: in his world, anything that could possibly benefit downtown is an assault on the rest of the city.
"All this reflects a widespread prejudice endemic at planning departments in universities, within city bureaucracies, and in much of the media. Across a broad spectrum of planning schools and practitioners, suburbs and single-family neighborhoods are linked to everything from obesity, rampant consumerism, environmental degradation, the current energy crisis -- and even the predominance of conservative political tendencies."
Acolytes of such worldviews in our City Halls are now working overtime to find ways to snuff out "sprawl" in favor of high-density living. Portland's "urban growth boundary" and the "smart growth" policies promoted by former Maryland Governor Parris Glendening, for example, epitomize the preference of planners to cram populations into ever denser, expensive housing by choking off new land to development."
Response: "Ever denser?" "More expensive." Portland is less dense than Kotkin's beloved Los Angeles, and less expensive too. (As Kotkin's source
Wendell Cox has
pointed out. And Baltimore is cheaper still.
"More recently, this notion even has spread to areas where single family homes and suburbs are de rigueur. Planners in Albuquerque have suggested banning backyards -- despised as wasteful and "anti-social" by new urbanists and environmentalists, although it is near-impossible to find a family that doesn't want one. Even the mayor of Boise, Idaho, advocates tilting city development away from private homes, which now dominate the market, toward apartments."
Response: Given Kotkin's failure to use actual quotes from actual human beings, I am not sure whether his descriptions of these "facts" are quite correct. I did a WESTLAW search for "albuquerque /20 backyards" and found nothing faintly resembling Kotkin's claim. Similarly, my search under "mayor /20 boise /20 apartments" also turned up zero.
"Perhaps the best-known case of anti-sprawl legislation has been the "urban growth boundary," adopted in the late '70s to restrict development to areas closer to established urban areas. To slow the spread of suburban, single-family-home growth, the Portland region adopted a "grow up, not out" planning regime, which stressed dense, multistory development. Mass transit was given priority over road construction, which was deemed to be sprawl-inducing.
Experts differ on the impact of these regulations, but it certainly has not created the new urbanist nirvana widely promoted by Portland's boosters. Strict growth limits have driven population and job growth further out, in part by raising the price of land within the growth boundary, to communities across the Columbia River in Washington state and to distant places in Oregon. Suburbia has not been crushed, but simply pushed farther away. Portland's dispersing trend appears to have intensified since 2000: The city's population growth has slowed considerably, and 95% of regional population increase has taken place outside the city limits."
Response: Misses a few key facts. First, between 1980 and 2000, Portland's experiment did very well indeed. Portland grew from 368,000 people to 529,000 people, an increase of over 40%. By contrast, comparable regional cities like Denver and Seattle experienced growth rates in the 10-15% range). (A more detailed discussion of the "Portland miracle" can be found in
one of my scholarly pieces, which also points out that housing prices in Portland have grown no faster than in Seattle or Denver.) Admittedly, the 2004 Census estimates were not kind to Portland; the city's growth was much slower than in the 1990s. But these estimates are just estimates: the Census Department
often underestimated city growth in the mid-Census estimates between 1990 and 2000, and might do so again.
"This experience may soon be repeated elsewhere as planners and self-proclaimed visionaries run up against people's aspirations for a single-family home and low-to-moderate-density environment. Such desires may constitute, as late Robert Moses once noted, "details too intimate" to merit the attention of the university-trained. Even around cities like Paris, London, Toronto and Tokyo -- all places with a strong tradition of central planning -- growth continues to follow the preference of citizens to look for lower-density communities. High energy prices and convenient transit have not stopped most of these cities from continuing to lose population to their ever-expanding suburban rings.
But nowhere is this commitment to low-density living greater than in the U.S."
Response: So let me get this straight: in Europe cities lose population, and Americans are even more committed to suburbia. So how come so many American cities keep gaining population? How come Portland's population grew by over 40% between 1980 and 1990? How come New York's population grew for the past two decades? And Los Angeles's? And Seattle's? And Denver's?
"Roughly 51% of Americans, according to recent polls, prefer to live in the suburbs, while only 13% opt for life in a dense urban place. A third would go for an even more low-density existence in the countryside."
Response: "Recent polls"? You mean there's more than one with exactly the same result? I doubt that, given how often poll results vary with question wording. Here's a poll you won't see Kotkin quoting:
"Would you personally prefer to live in a suburban setting with larger lots and houses and a longer drive to work and most other places, or in a more central urban setting with smaller homes on smaller lots, and be able to take transit or walk to work and other places?"
55 percent chose the more "central urban setting" and 37 percent chose the more "suburban setting." (Source: Question 10 in
this survey.) And this was in Houston- Bush the Elder's hometown!
"The preference for suburban-style living continues to be particularly strong among younger families. Market trends parallel these opinions. Despite widespread media exposure about a massive "return to the city," demographic data suggest that the tide continues to go out toward suburbia, which now accounts for two-thirds of the population in our large metropolitan areas. Since 2000, suburbs have accounted for 85% of all growth in these areas. And much of the growth credited to "cities" has actually taken place in the totally suburb-like fringes of places like Phoenix, Orlando and Las Vegas."
Response: By stating that suburbs "have accounted for 85% of all growth", Kotkin is implicitly admitting that cities are growing. This fact would seem to contradict his statement that cities are
"continuing to lose population to their ever-expanding suburban rings."
"These facts do not seem to penetrate the consciousness of the great metropolitan newspapers anymore than the minds of their favored interlocutors in the planning profession and academia."
Response: Then how come "great metropolitan newspapers" such as the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal publish anything you write? On the one hand, Kotkin attacks the elitist press and on the other, he takes their money.
"Newspapers from Boston and San Francisco to Los Angeles are routinely filled with anecdotal accounts of former suburbanites streaking into hip lofts and high-rises in the central core. Typical was a risible story that ran in last Sunday's New York Times, titled "Goodbye, Suburbia." The piece tracked the hegira back to the city by sophisticated urbanites who left their McMansions to return to Tribeca (rhymes with "Mecca"). Suburbia, one returnee sniffed, is "just a giant echoing space."
Such reports confirm the cognoscente's notion that the cure for the single-family house lies in the requisite lifting of consciousness, not to mention a couple of spare million in the bank."
Response: Gee, why is "a couple of spare million in the bank" relevant? Could it be that these "hip lofts and high-rises" are actually expensive? And if they are expensive, could it be that people actually want to live in them? Well, I guess that blows up the thesis that hardly anyone wants cities any more.
"Yet demographic data suggest the vast majority of all growth in greater New York comes not from migration from the suburbs, but from abroad. Among domestic migrants, far more leave for the "giant echoing spaces" than come back to the city."
Response: In his article about Portland a month or two ago, Kotkin asserted that Portland was a failure because it didn't have enough immigrants. Now he is dissing NYC for having too many. I don't see how he can be right both times.
"As a whole, greater New York -- easily the most alluring traditional urban center -- is steadily becoming more, not less, suburban. Since 2000, notes analyst Wendell Cox, New York City has gained less than 95,000 people while the suburban rings have added over 270,000. Growth in "deathlike" places like Suffolk County, in Long Island, Orange County, N.Y., and Morris County, N.J., has been well over three times faster than the city."
Response: Again, note the admission that New York City is gaining population, buried in the midst of Kotkin's rhetoric. (And as I said before, I think any statistics based on the 2000 Census are a bit dubious).
"So as he unfolds the details of his new urban "vision," Mr. Villaraigosa might do well to consider such sobering statistics. Californians, too, like single-family homes. According to a 2002 poll, 84% prefer them to apartments."
Response: Question wording, please? As I noted before, polls can have all kinds of meanings depending on how they are worded.
"Instead of dismissing the suburban single-family neighborhood as "an old concept," L.A.'s mayor might look to how to capitalize on the success of such sections of his city as the San Fernando Valley, where a large percentage of the housing stock is made up of owner-occupied houses and low-rise condominiums. The increasingly multi-ethnic valley already boasts both the city's largest base of homeowners, as well as its strongest economy, including roughly two-thirds of the employment in the critical entertainment industry.
It is time politicians recognized how their constituents actually want to live. If not, they will only hurt their communities, and force aspiring middle-class families to migrate ever further out to the periphery for the privacy, personal space and ownership that constitutes the basis of their common dreams."
Response: And how exactly can L.A.'s mayor cram his city with more single-family homes? Is there undeveloped space where he can do this? Perhaps Villaraigosa is making a virtue out of necessity.
Posted by lewyn
at 11:00 PM EST
Updated: Wednesday, 18 January 2006 11:01 PM EST