neat internet stuff

http://www.streetfilms.org/archives/meet-seattles-bus-chick/

 

http://carfreewithkids.blogspot.com/

Live blogging Gov. Jindal

10:24 Begins by discussing O's personal story- nice way of seguing into his own! 

10:26 "Amercans can do anything!" Yes, I'm afraid we did.

10:28 Begins substance with cliche about how greatness of America is not in our government.  Silly cliche- your job is to be the government!

10:29 Tax cut blather-we're for all the tax cuts O is for, only more of it.  Reminds me how non-transformational O. is.  40 years ago, Rs proposed new spending programs and Ds outbid them.  Now, a supposedly liberal D proposes tax cuts and Rs outbid them. Maybe O is to Bush as Nixon (may his memory be a blessing) is to Johnson- less an ideological transformation to a slight mid-course correction to an out of control Texan.

10:29 Ridicules spending, but picks bad examples.  I don't see how high-speed rail is so ridiculous.  

10:30 Tax cuts, spending cuts, blah blah blah.  Sounds shopworn, like Jindal running for Bush's third term.

10:31 Drill, baby drill! 

10:31 "Universal access to affordable health care coverage" without "universal government-run health care."  Nice if you can swing it!

10:33 "Now is no time to dismantle the defenses that have protected the country for hundreds of years."  I'm guessing that 100 years ago our defenses were a bit more modest that O. wants, or Jindal for that matter. 

10:34 Our party got away from its principles- can't deny that. 

"Our party is determined to regain your trust."  Good.  

10:35 More  optimism.

Mediocre- thought he would be better somehow.  (Then again, I'm always tougher on Rs- I expect mediocrity from Ds).

One thing about Jindal's speech: except for a line here and there, reveals almost no awareness of economic situation.  Almost every line in speech could have been given at this time in 2007 or 2008.   

 

Latest blog posts on Planetizen
http://planetizen.com/blog/63

Live blogging Obama, part 3

Foreign affairs portion. 

9:57 Speaking of al-Qaeda terrorism, "We will not allow it."  Easier said than done.

9:58 Obama calls for more troops in the military!  Am feeling desire to invent time travel so I can go back in the polling booth to vote for Ron Paul.

Nothing else new on foreign policy.

10:03 Starts praising ordinary Americans, goes through ritual of naming a few.  I'm guessing this is like the announcements in shul- a sign that we're ending soon.  Maybe I should drink a little wine to make it feel like kiddush! 

So what do we get out of this substantively?  O. calling for more bailouts (no news there), moving to center with tax cuts, some cuts in spending.  Speech could have easily been given by President Clinton (Bill or Hillary)  - solidifies my impression that O. is basically a generic Democrat, not the Messiah that liberals hope for, not the Great Satan that his opponents fear. 

I also think that whether he succeeds or not, leftists will come to loathe him as much as movement conservatives do now- maybe more, because they will feel betrayed. 

NBC is talking about O's optimism- well gosh, what do you expect? After Jimmy Carter, it is conventional wisdom that a President must be optimistic.  

 

Live blogging Obama's speech

I'm going to try to live blog Obama's speech- maybe it will force me to pay attention!

9:19 "We will rebuild"- makes it sound like USA has been hit by a nuclear bomb or something.   He then praises our enterpreneurs- say, weren't they the same people who ruined the banks?  

9:21 Says he'll tell us what went wrong.  Then distracts with energy, education blah blah blah.   Then goes into a laundry list of blaming [starting with tax cuts for rich, burying housing in the middle of the list]- President O. has a bad habit of laundry listing when he is being programmatic, instead of focusing on what is/was really important. 

9:22 On stimulus: "Not because I believe in bigger government- I don't."  When even O. attacks Big Government, you know that the Left was pretty much lost the argument on the role of government. 

9:24 Lists good stuff about stimulus - mentions layoffs that were prevented, tax cut, etc.  (I can't help wondering: why not just a tax credit for state taxes instead of all these little programs?  States could raise taxes to avoid layoffs and get away with it, and consumers would be effectively taxed less and thus spend more).

9:25 Plugs recovery.gov to show how money will be spent.  Talks about efforts to prevent state and local waste and fraud- but won't federal scrutiny just impose more bureaucracy and delay on states?

9:28 Good explanation of crisis- that its basically about banking and lending, not about housing any more.  We've had housing recessions before (1991, 1992) but we've never had insolvent banks to this extent, at least not in the past 75 years. 

9:30 Comes out against bailouts "with no strings attached"- nice false dichotomy, justifying bailouts by posing choice between bailouts with "accountability" (whatever that means) and bailouts without same, as opposed to bailouts vs. no bailouts. 

9:32 Goes back to explaining why he needs to support banks- "its not about helping banks, its about helping people."  This sounds like trickle-down economics to me- give money to the banks and they'll lend to you.  (Though having said all this, its not like I have any better ideas!) 

9:35 Stops talking about bank $ (no real specifics, I notice) and starts talking about budget.

 

 

 

 

 

Live blogging Obama part 2

9:38 Talks about cutting back on "programs we don't need" but investing in 3 key areas: energy, health care, education.  Now he sounds like Clinton (the old "cut and invest" cliche).

9:39 Spend money on energy for new grid, energy efficiency.  Sounds pretty noncontroversial to me (except for cap-and-trade), but I'm hardly an expert in this area.  But proposes only $15 billion/yr. which of course is nothing these days.

9:41 "The nation that invented the automobile cannot walk away from it."  This is environmentalism?  Oy vey.  

9:42 Because of cost of health care, O. says we can't afford to put health care reform on hold.  Talks about bringing down health care costs through "efficiency" - sounds too good to be true to me.  Maybe I'm misinterpeting O. but what I think I hear is: if you hoped for (or feared) national health insurance, you ain't getting any from THIS President!

9:47 Claims stimulus provided resources to prevent teacher layoffs.  Doesn't seem consistent with what I read in local papers. 

9:48 Talks about education reform- charter schools.  Says "every American will need to get more than a high school diploma." I think that's just dumb.  50 years ago, high school was fine for most people. Now we force people to impoverish themselves for 4 years just to get the same job they could have gotten with a high school diploma or less in 1948.  And are they really any smarter?  I doubt it- I suspect high school and non-elite colleges have been watered down to raise graduation rates.  But then again, maybe I'm succumbing to false nostalgia here, remembering the distant past as better than it really was. 

Except for the bailouts (which are arguably necessitated by the economic emergency- I think President McCain would be supporting large chunks of this) this speech could have been given by Clinton so far. 

9:51 Comes out for deficit reduction.  I'm speechless. 

9:53 Says he has "identified $2 trillion in savings in next decade." We'll see how much of that survives Congressional scrutiny!  

9:54 Comes out against "waste, fraud and abuse."  Where have we heard that one before? 

9:55 Talks about tax cuts in stimulus package - "checks on the way".  Didn't we try that last year?

9:56 Calls for "Universal Savings Accounts" and "Social Security reform."  Not sure what that means.

 

 

 

 

 

 

My last Folio Weekly article (on crime in Jax)
http://works.bepress.com/lewyn/56/

My latest blog posts
http://www.planetizen.com/blog/63

Books and movies I saw/read in 2008

MOVIES (* means I really liked)

 1. I Am Legend
 2. Persepolis*
3. Walk Hard*
4. No Country For Old Men
 5. Michael Clayton
 6. Juno
 7. There Will Be Blood
 8. The Countefeiters
9. Wall-E
10. Brideshead Revisited
11. Boy In The Striped Pajamas
12. The Reader
13.  Doubt*
> >
> > BOOKS
> >
1. Best Laid Plans, O’Toole
 2. Torah Through Time, Cherry
3. Between the Yeshiva World and Modern Orthodoxy: The Life and Works of Rabbi Yehiel Jacob Weinberg, 1884-1966, Shapiro*

4. The Documentary Hypothesis and The Composition of the Pentateuch, Cassuto
5. Peace not Apartheid, Carter
6. The Absolutely Worst Places to Live in America, Dave Gilmartin
7. Rybczynski, Last Harvest
8. Road to Ruin, Dom Nozzi
9. The Provincials, Evans
10. Schacht, An Introduction To Islamic Law
11. Chabon, The Yiddish Policemen’s Union
12. Sacks, The Dignity of Difference
13. Angel, Foundations of Sephardic Spirituality
14. Levi, The Periodic Table
15. Armstrong, The Battle for God
16. Obama, Dreams from My Father*
17. Rosenbaum, The Holocaust and Halakhah
18. Sartre, Anti-Semite and Jew
19. Scholem, The Messianic Idea In Judaism
20. Obama, The Audacity of Hope
21. Kushner, Who Needs God?
22. Lynn Austin, Gods and Kings
23. Ginzberg, Louis Ginzberg, Keeper of the Law
24. Merriam, Complete Guide to Zoning*
25. Dahl, Matilda
26. Perl, Revealer of Secrets
27. Cohn-Sherbock, Fifty Key Jewish Thinkers
28. Ellenson, After Emancipation
29. Eisen, Taking Hold of Torah
30. Goldhill, The Temple of Jerusalem
31. Scholem, A Life In Letters, 1914-82
32. Hagee, Jerusalem Countdown
33. Newman, Defensible Space
34. Goodman, Rome and Jerusalem: The Clash of Civilizations
35. Gross, The Last Jews in Berlin
36. Steinsaltz, Talmudic Images
37. Popper, Bordering on Madness
38. Ferrigno, Sins of the Assassin
39. Halbertal, People of the Book
40. Humphries, Superdove*
41. Kushner, Healthy Cities
42. Potter-Efron, Angry All The Time
43. Shaw, Forty Days to Begin Spiritual Life
44. Pelcovitz, Sforno Torah Commentary
45. Levine, Case Studies In Jewish Ethics
46. Adler, Jewish Travelers in the Middle Ages
47. Martin, Quiet Revolution
48. Dean, Warren G. Harding
49. Graff, Grover Cleveland
50. Joselit, New York’s Jewish Jews*
51. Fernandes, The Last Jews of Kerala
52. Phillips, William McKinley
 52.5. Shapiro, Saul Lieberman and the Orthodox
53. Jackson, Landscapes
54. Dippel, Bound Upon A Wheel of Fire
55. Halivni, Breaking the Tablets
> >

Now that the election is over, some observations

My predictions were:

Obama wins 50.5-48, 332-206 (much less generous to Obama than reality; he wound up winning 52-46 with about 364 electoral votes)

House: +17 D (pretty close to reality; it looks like Dems are hovering around + 20, though half a dozen races still uncalled)

Senate + 6D (close to reality- missed NC Dem pickup, Alaska if Stevens pulls it out, Mn if Franken wins)

 

The Senate and House races came out about as I expected, but nevertheless were surprising.     If you had told me that Obama would win by six points, I would have predicted a much stronger downballot showing for the Dems- maybe 30 or 35 House pickups, plus a couple of extra Senate seats that they may not have picked up (e.g. Minnesota, Ak). 

My guess is that I underestimated the amount of straight-ticket voting: because people in Republican districts voted straight Republican, even weak Republican incumbents (e.g. Bachmann in Minnnesota) won as long as they were in McCain districts. 

Not totally shocked that Fla went for Obama- I guessed otherwise but agonized about it.  It was 2 pts more Republican than the nation, about what I would have expected.

To me, the results actually show the strength of the Republican base.  If the Democrats had spent eight years in the White House presiding over a slugglish, low-wage 'recovery', running a long, inconclusive war or two, and blowing up the financial system for a dazzling finale, would they have gotten away with a 53-47 loss?  Try 63-37 on for size.  (Hoover lost 58-42, and he had the advantage of a populace that had been loyal to the GOP for generations).  Similarity, would the Democrats have kept 180-odd House seats?  I suspect they'd be a lot closer to the 145 that Republicans held after Watergate, or maybe even the double-digit levels of the post-Hoover Republicans.  All McCain needed to win was 3 or 4 percent more- not a lot of ground to make up.

Given that result, I don't think McCain's campaign was so terrible [though it certainly antagonized me].  I think they knew that the political environment was toxic for Republicans, and that they simply could not win with a positive campaign.  So they tried to scare uneducated white people to death of Obama- and it came fairly close to working, and probably would have worked had it not been for the financial crash.   Even with the crash Obama cratered in the non-coastal, Appalachian South.

I am not sure either Obama or McCain would be particularly successful over the next four years.  This election reminds me of 1928: two candidates who would be OK presidents under ordinary circumstances but are probably not up to a task this big in a situation this messed up.   The only precedent we have is 1932- but in 1932 we weren't laboring under Bush-era deficits.    

Recent blog posts and op-eds

http://works.bepress.com/lewyn/55/ (defending city-county consolidation in Jacksonville)

http://www.planetizen.com/node/35956 (explaining why the pursuit of ever-expanding housing values is foolish) 

 

blogging last debate
This time I’m going to try to blog less and pay more attention

After 10 minutes of promises, McCain says Joe Wurtzelberger will pay higher taxes under Obama plan. Sounds gimmicky to me, especially since he can’t explain why Joe will pay more.

Obama hammers on middle class tax cut, just like Clinton in ‘93.  Everyone is moving to the center and handing out free candy.

9:11 McCain says Obama “wants to spread the wealth around”, hollers “class warfare”.   McCain says: why do you ever want to raise anyone’s taxes?  (Um, national debt...)  Obama responds with usual robotic response: 95% of you will pay less, Exxon blah blah blah...

McCain staying in ideological comfort zone- not sure it works under current conditions.  

9:13 Schieffer points out both candidates smoking crack given size of current deficit. (Ross Perot, where are you when we need you?)

Obama endorses “net spending cut” and “pay as you go.”  Amazing how someone from such a liberal background is moving to the center.  Obama says difference is “investing in America”: health care, energy.  

9:17 McCain endorses New Deal Home Ownership Loan Corp - didn’t they create redlining or something?

McCain endorses “across the board spending freeze.” Government “out of control.”  I know how to “eliminate programs”.  Takes on ethanol subsidies. (Good hit!), tariff on sugar cane.  Reminds me why he’s such a good senator - takes on small issues like a bulldog.  But can he persuade anyone that this translates into big picture executive skills?

Obama says some programs don’t work at all, others underfunded.  Reminds us that national debt doubled under Bush.  

9:20 McCain asks Obama when he voted against party.  Obama hits out of park with several examples, starting with tort reform.  (Good hit! - not that I’m expressing an opinion on, like, factual truth - but it sounds good)

9:27 Pointless squabbling about which campaign more negative - makes both look bad.  McCain sounds mellower than usual, which works for him though.

9:36 McCain accuses ACORN of “one of the greatest frauds in voting history.”  Talk about poisoning the well!

Obama talks about Ayers.  Says: he’s a professor in Chicago, who 40 years ago did despicable things.  Long after that, we served on a board with lots of perfectly respectable people, including a Repub or two.   Re ACORN: apparently they hired some crooks who registered nonexistent people.  They have nothing to do with my campaign.

Let me tell you who I associate with:

Buffet.  Volcker.  Biden.  Dick Lugar.  Those are the people, Democrats and Republicans, who have shaped my ideas.  (Good hit!)

9:39 McCain says Obama “launched his campaign in Ayers’ living room” and his board gave money to ACORN.

9:44 Obama gets good hit on McCain.  McCain praises Palin for “reform” and supporting special needs children, and Obama says “Hey wait a minute- how can you brag about special needs kids and then freeze their funding?”

9:47 McCain promises 45 new nuclear power plants.  With whose money?  Obama never responds to this point.

9:49 Obama sounds responsible: “I’m for drilling, but we only have 3% of world’s oil reserves.”

9:55 5 minutes of blathering about Colombia.  McCain is not getting viewership on this one.  Does anyone really think Colombia matters that much?

9:57 Discussion of health care.  Obama starts with strong response: If you have health insurance. nothing changes.  (Sounds great!)

McCain blathers about details, then accuses Obama of favoring “fines” and “bureaucracies.”  Accuses Obama of favoring “single-payer system” (which doesn’t sound at all like what Obama is proposing).  Obama explains alleged fine- basically larger employers who don’t insure have to pay for insurance, but emphasizes none of this applies to smaller companies.

10:02 Obama goes after weakness in McCain proposal.  If you get rid of employer tax deduction, won’t people lose their employer based insurance?  And what good does tax credit do in comparison?  Sounds knowledgeable.

10:04 McCain tries to turn this into ideological dispute.  Sounds like Jimmy Carter in 1980.  

Obama goes back to details- sounds in command.

10:07 McCain talks about Supreme Court, and how he was part of Gang of 7, against litmus tests, etc.  But adds “I do not think someone who supported Roe v. Wade would have qualifications I want.” Sounds like he wants to have it both ways.

10:09 Obama all for litmus tests.

10:14 Wrangling over abortion.  McCain throws kitchen sink at Obama.  Obama makes McCain look like he’s twisting Obama’s record. McCain emphasizes he’s for adoption too.

Schieffer ends with interesting question: we spend more than other countries on education, and the results stink.  (Though not a big issue at federal level).

Obama responds “more money for teachers in exchange for higher standards”, more money for college.   More money blah blah blah.  Endorses charter schools.  McCain criticizes “throwing money at the problem”.  

Obama says “we agree on a lot, disagree on vouchers.”  (I notice McCain never mentioned the V-word).   In response McCain takes on voucher issue, emphasizes how atrocious DC schools are and how helpful vouchers can be.   Obama says vouchers now limited to DC. McCain wisely responds: “Because there’s not enough vouchers, we shouldn’t have them”.

This all seems like an argument that could have happened 20 years ago.

Closing statement:

McCain starts with “reform.”  Was there a big scandal that I missed?  Is this still 1976?  

Obama talks about “change”.  Let’s “invest in the American people again” (as Ross Perot would say, “Hand out free candy”)  

McCain seemed much mellower than in the second debate, though there were a few times he got in the mud.  It seems like he’s reconciled to losing.  Obama wasn’t that good on the offense, but was great on defense.

A yasher koach to Schieffer.  4 years ago he moderated a debate and I thought he was remorselessly trivial and kind of in the tank for Bush.  This time, I thought he was much better.

live blogging debate Part II

9:49 Q for Obama- should health care be treated as commodity?

Obama- discusses problem.  We’ll lower costs of premiums with super technology (not credible).  If you’re not insured you can buy into fed’l premium. Nails McCain on key weakness: he’ll tax your health insurance (good hit!) - even business organizations say that will destroy employer based health care system [so Obama and NY Times say; I'm not personally agreeing or disagreeing).

McCain- more Obama-like gibberish on efficiency. Obama will impose “mandates’ (wooo scary).  Obama will “fine” you. [Since McCain wants to tax employer based health benefits, this seems like another area where he's vulnerable too) I’ll give you tax credit so you can go across state lines.  Claims you’ll have increased funds to buy health insurance. Not sure I get his point.  Obviously small business people want to give health insurance to their employees.  Not if you take away the tax deduction! (Fortunately, the chances of either candidate getting to health insurance in the next four years is so low that I doubt health insurance is a voting issue; the recession will keep the President busy).

Keeps repeating word “fine.”

McCain- health care ‘responsibility.’

Obama- health care ‘right’. If people are bankrupted due to medical problems, that’s not right.
There is no mandate.
What’s the “fine”? I do want you to insure your children, because children can’t do it themselves and they are cheap to insure.  And McCain voted AGAINST expansion of children’s health insurance, so he’s got a lot of nerve.

What’s the problem with buying across state lines? Obama says Race to bottom problem. Consumer protections you need you can’t get.  McCain ‘believes in deregulation in every circumstance.’

Some of this argument is confusing to me- I can’t imagine how confusing it would be to average voter.  Lots of inside the beltway gibberish.

Debate shifted about foreign policy- 10 PM McCain says America “is the greatest force for good...we are peacemakers.” Do most Americans consider McCain part of that "we"?

Obama- McCain says I don’t understand.  He’s right.  I don’t understand why we went after Iraq and let bin Laden go free. And McCain supported that.

We’re spending 10 billion dollars a month in Iraq - we need that in the United States.  

Emphasizes his agreement that US a force for good.  We can’t let economy decline and keep our military superiority.  

McCain- surge blah blah blah. As debate shifts to foreign policy I’m fighting off boredom.

10:09 Q from audience- should we ignore Pakistan’s borders or pursue terrorists into those borders?

Obama- emphasizes Bush failure in Afghanistan.  End war in Iraq to support war in Afghanistan.   Says crushing al Qaeda first priority.  Period.

McCain- “Talk softly and carry a big stick.”   Sounds like a dove.  “Help Pakistan govt. get support of the people.”  Use force but “talk softly”- not real credible from McCain given some of his not-so-soft remarks in the past.  (From Huck or Romney would sound much more so!)

Obama- I didn’t call for invasion.  I want to bomb only if Pakistan unable or unwilling to get bin Laden.   Besides, you were the one who said “bomb bomb bomb Iran.’  (Nice hit!)

McCain- Says “trust me’; I ‘act responsibly.’  Not sure whether Jane Swing Voter trusts McCain.

10:16 British commander says ‘we’re failing in Afghanistan.’  What do we do?

Obama - more troops.  McCain doesn’t seem to disagree on Afghanistan.  But says- how come Obama won’t admit same strategy worked in Iraq?  

10:19 Good question- how can we avoid cold war with Russia?

McCain- Attacks Russia, Putin again.  We must get Ga and Ukraine in NATO, to punish “naked aggression.” And if there’s a border dispute, what then?  Sounds somewhat more responsible than right after the Russia/Georgia conflict.  

Obama- Outbids McCain; wants to give money to Georgia.  Points out situation not ‘stable’- we need to see 21st c challenges.   If we can reduce our energy consumption Russia will be weaker (kind of fatuous, since Russia sells to global market)

10:23 Is Russia evil empire?

Obama- not an evil empire, has engaged in “evil behavior”.  
McCain- “maybe.”  “We can deal with them’ but we are ‘firm and determined.’

Why are we messing around even more with foreign policy?  Haven’t we beaten all these horses to death in first debate?

10:26 McCain and Obama preach about how we “can’t” let Iran get nuclear weapon, and how we’ll “never” take military options off table.   Obama says diplomacy has to be on the table.

Then boring closing statements.  Obama evades question by talking about how America and his grandma are great, blah blah.  We need “fundamental change.” Is he serious?  Expecting fundamental change from Obama is like expecting Putin to join the ACLU.  (For a great explanation of Obama’s wussiness go to Daniel Larison’s latest post at www.amconmag.com/larison )

McCain has similar list of generalities.

This was much more sedate than I expected.  I guess McCain won slightly, but this doesn’t strike me as a game-changer either way.

live blogging second presidential debate part 1
I’m going to try to liveblog again, even though I realize it interferes with my appreciation of the visuals.

9:03 First question- what’s the most positive solution to bail regular citizens out?

Obama- Starts off by attacking Bush/McCain, probably a bit too much time on that.  Starts off with last week’s (already failed) bailout, leading with his chin.  Beats up on crooked corporate executives- kind of a waste of time.  Eventually gets to answering question- helping state and local govts, tax cuts, “keeping homeowner in homes.”  Weak answer- by the time he got to answering the question he already lost me.

McCain- Starts off by acknowledging people “fearful.”  Uses standard conservative line- low taxes, low spending, drill drill drill.  Talks about “home values.”  Moves left, suggesting govt. “buy up bad home mortgages” to stabilize home values, and then rent out homes.  Good answer, but should have led off with it.

Neither of these guys seem to know how to go positive.   Both seem to lead off with same stuff they spouted BEFORE financial crisis.

Brokaw- who do you have in mind for Treasury Dept?

McCain mentions Meg Whitman, Buffet- someone who “inspires trust and confidence”.

Obama- Prosperity isn’t just going to trickle down; we’ve got to help middle class.  Wages have flatlined.  Loss of jobs loss of income.  (OK I guess, doesn’t add anything substantive).

Audience question- How is bailout package going to help?

Boring question, since McCain and Obama are 100% in agreement on this issue.  Let’s face it, the bailout has already been unmasked as at least partially a failure, since the reason Congress voted for it was the stock market went down- but after bailout passed it went down even more.

McCain invokes Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac. Says “I stood up to these crooks’ while the Democrats in Senate defended them.   Says “stabilize home values” for 2nd time.

Obama says- “Here’s what in rescue package for you.  Credit frozen up and people can’t make payroll.”  Says it all started with deregulation of financial system which McCain bragged about.
I said we’ve got to reregulate but no one paid attention.  With respect to Fannie Mae, the bill McCain supported wasn’t his idea, and Sen. McCain’s campaign manager’s firm was involved with FM too.   “This is not the end of the process”, we’ll “work with homeowners” to prevent foreclosures.

Neither seem real credible to me. I’m not a financial expert, but even I know this wasn’t just about one or two bad banks, even ones as big as Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae.  This is about an entire industry going hog wild thanks to easy money, and homeowners buying homes they can’t afford.  We have met the enemy and he is us (and the Federal Reserve that enabled us with too much easy money for too long).

9:18 Another audience question- How can we trust either of you when both parties got us in this crisis? (Darn, I wish a third party candidate was on the stage to answer that question!)

Obama - hits on Bush, Bush deficit.  McCain voted for 4 out of 5 of George Bush budgets.
I’ll spend money on “reform” of health care, “dealing” with energy.  On the other hand he proposes unspecified spending cuts.  He sure can move to the center.  But he stinks when talking about specifics.  This is why the Democrats are still incapable of governing- too afraid of their own shadow to come up with good bumper-sticker issues that sound both specific AND appealing.

McCain says he’s a reformer, hits on campaign finance reform, climate change.  “Obama has never taken on the leaders of his party.” Good (and true) hit!   

McCain blathers about earmarks, new spending.  Seems pretty minor to me (hypocritical given Palin’s earmark record).   Blathers about energy- not really a key issue now that the price of oil is down.

Brokaw asks about entitlement reform, domestic issues.  McCain says let’s get together to cut Social Security, has “clear record of reaching across the aisle”.   Talks about energy- was that really what the question was about?  It sounds like he’s doing what Palin did- avoiding the questions that he doesn’t have painless answers about by shifting to energy.  Sounds a few months out of date- questions that would have been more important when oil was $100 a gallon.  But if we’re heading into a global recession, oil prices are going to keep going down and not up, as demand stagnates.

Obama repeats McCain’s blather about energy.  Health care priority number two.  Education number three.  (Did he just punt on entitlements?)  Obama talks about “going line by line’ through federal budget- shades of Carter’s zero based budgeting?  We also have to prioritize tax policies as well as spending policies.

Internet question- What sacrifice will you ask us to make?

McCain- cut allegedly ineffective govt. spending.  I saved some defense spending.  Obsession with earmarks.  Sounds like Hoover - if people are starving and freezing, tell them to eat less [But Obama never calls him on it so he's fine].  “Spending is going to have to be cut.’  Spending freeze for everything but defense.  You mean after 8 years of war, we need even MORE money for war? Lotsa luck with that, Senator.  I always thought in a a recession you stimulate the economy.  That means putting money in people’s pockets, whether through tax cuts, spending increases).  Is now the time for austerity? Right now it doesn't seem like it, but ultimately yes once recession over.

Obama- One opportunity Bush missed was saying to American people “go out and shop”- not really a call to service.  Endorses clean coal, nuclear.  Wants incentives to get more fuel efficient cars, businesses - nice answer.  Double Peace Corps (seems silly- more Americans going abroad and getting killed by terrorists?)

9:34 Brokaw- How do we break habit of too much easy credit? (This would have been a good question to ask a year ago; but everyone from the Fed to Congress is trying to make credit EASIER.  So in today’s context this seems like a moronic question).

Obama- Why ask middle class to tighten their belt when Wall St gets bailout?  President should “set tone.”  But across the board freeze is ‘using a hatchet’ to ensure that people who need help are getting it.

McCain- Hollers “tax raiser.” Ties Obama to Hoover- tax increases, protectionism.  (Great hit!) Obama's tax increase will increase taxes on 50% of small business revenue.  But since he wants to cut spending he’s vulnerable to same charge.

“I am not in favor of additional tax cuts for the wealthy.” “Let’s not raise anyone’s taxes.”

9:37 Brokaw- would you give congress a date certain to reform SS/medicare?

Obama- We gotta focus on economy, so I can’t promise anything in first four years (Very sensible- right now we gotta focus on avoiding economic collapse- this other stuff is not so urgent).  Goes back to taxes.  I want to provide tax cuts for 95% of Americans.  Only a few small businesses make over 250K, so vast majority of small businesses get tax cut AND I would provide tax credit for health insurance.  Accuses McCain of favoring tax cut for rich again. (Huh?  This just sounds like one of them is lying.)  

McCain- “I’ll answer the question.”  Re SS- we know what the fixes are.  (But he won’t tell us).  Repeats claim that Obama hasn’t taken on party (Good).
Medicare “tougher”- have a commission.
Obama has voted 94 times “against tax cuts.”  Beginning to seem shopworn.

live blogging debate, Part I

First ten minutes (before I got computer 100% on because I just got in)- Biden seems slow, like he’s on Valium or something.  Palin gets a good start talking about “fear” of ordinary people.  But Palin seems to be laying it on a bit thick about the “maverick” thing calling herself and McCain “a team of mavericks.”   Generally Palin’s doing OK though- she’s just reciting prerehearsed lines, and she’s good at that.  As long as she isn’t being probed as Katie Couric did she’s fine.

9:12 Palin raises tax issues, talking about “94 times” Obama could have voted to cut taxes.  Basic Republican cliches- “government has to be more efficient.”  Biden gives convincing response about taxes, saying that McCain voted against tax cuts sometimes soon.  Points out that Palin didn’t respond to her hits about deregulation.

9:14 Palin brags about the taxes she cut.  A bit misleading, since she raised taxes both as mayor and as governor.  In response to point about McCain’s deregulatory tendencies, Palin talks about how McCain “known for” something or other.  No matter who?

9:15 Biden asked about tax hike on 250K earners.  Biden responds about “fairness”- not sure what that means.  But makes key point, no one earning over 250K will see tax increase.  (Doesn’t sound like a realistic promise to me).   Biden hits hard on middle class tax cut.  These Democrats sure are moving to the center?

9:17 Palin says “but what about small businesses earning over 250K?”  Hits Biden by responding to his claim that raising taxes not “patriotic.”  They both sound like idiots to me.  

9:18 Re health insurance- promises $5000 credit so people can buy their own health care coverage.  Oh please.... who the hell pays only $400 a month for private insurance?  Hollers “socialized medicine.”

9: 19 Biden - its not redistribution to support giving middle class tax cut.  Good hit!
Claims most small businesses earn well under 250k - good hit!
Biden points out that if you have health care plan through employer, you have a tax increase because the government will eliminate the deduction.  Gets a little too statistical though, a bit hard to follow.

So far: Biden sounds more commanding, but Palin not so bad.   Nobody has really messed up so far - not entertaining enough I’m afraid!

Ifill asks what will you have to cut with bailout?

Biden- don’t double foreign aid - hurts by making us aware that Obama favored doubling foreign aid initially, not something popular with voters.  Ditch McCain tax cuts.  (So let’s get this straight– we’ll finance the bailout by not doing the things we opposed from the beginning...)  

9:24 Palin brags about energy expertise.  When asked by Ifill about what she will drop to finance bailout, she says she “hasn’t made a lot of promises” in five weeks- nice way to turn vagueness of Ifill’s claim against her.

9:25 Biden points out that Obama supports the windfall profits tax Palin did in Alaska- but McCain won’t.

9:27 Palin brags about McCain’s gimmick of suspending campaign to help with finance crisis.  Sounds dumb- his role in these issues is pretty minimal.

Biden seems more lively than he did at the start, though a bit too technical.

9:29 Palin demagogues about how we can just get all these undisclosed domestic supplies of energy to get energy independence.  Surely she should know that we have, like, 3 percent of the world’s oil.

9:30 Palin says “Alaska feels impact of climate change more than any other state.”  Um, I would think warm states would feel it more.  “I don’t want to argue about the causes” - nice evasion of her prior statements on issue (which don’t square with McCain’s).  Claims she has formed “climate change impacts” subcabinet.   Claims she supports “all of the above” approach- good line.

Biden much pithier on climate change- “I think it is man made.”  Says if you don’t understand cause you won’t come up with solution.  (Probably won’t appeal to people other than core Ds).  Gets key point that we don’t have that much oil, need to focus on “clean” coal and “safe nuclear.” (Great lines- “clean coal”, “safe nuclear” because it puts Obama on side of nuclear!)  “Drill we must” but let’s do other stuff.

9:34 Rightly or wrongly, I sense that Biden and Palin are aggressively moving to the center on energy- everyone is claiming to support “all of the above” solutions.   But each is accusing the other of being against good stuff- Biden says “You’re against everything but oil!” and Palin says “You’re against oil and natural gas!”

9:35 Both support limiting carbon emissions.

9:37 Palin discusses gay rights, and says word “tolerant” over and over again (good).  But both candidates draw line at gay marriage.  More everyone moving to center.

But one really clumsy evasion: Palin asked “does this mean that you agree that there should be no difference between gay and straight couples?”  Palin responds by saying she’s against gay marriage not answering gay marriage.

9:41 Palin rants about “victory” in Iraq.

Biden focuses on future- we’re with Maliki and George Bush.  “The only man out is John McCain.” (Very clever!)  Biden says there’s a fundamental difference- we’ll end war and let Iraqis take responsibility for their own future.
9:42 Palin responds with generalities about “commanders telling us when we’re done.”

9:43 Palin hits Biden on his prior attacks on Obama. Good hit!

Ifill asks which nation is more dangerous, Pakistan or Iran.

Biden gives obvious right answer: Pakistan obviously because they already have nukes.  Points out that Iran isn’t the primary problem because al-Qaeda mother ship in Pakistan.  Biden shows off expertise. Then goofs “there have been 7000 madrassas... we should build schools.”  Um, a madrassa is a school isn’t it?
                            
9:47 Palin cites Petraeus to support “Iraq central” theory.  Then panders to Israel vote by blah blah blahing about Iran.  Attacks Obama for being willing to talk to bad guys “without preconditions.” (Um what’s a precondition?)   

But when asked about Kissinger and other wise men favoring diplomacy, she gets very confusing: she has “passion for diplomacy”, diplomacy is “hard work by serious people”, having “sanctions lined up before there’s a summit”.  Basically incoherent- let’s negotiate but only till we have more economic sanctions first?

9:50 Biden gets great hit- says McCain “won’t even sit down with government of Spain”.  Not sure this is true- may have been slip of tongue by McCain.

9:51 Asked about Israel, praises Rice and two-state solution.  Clever- takes center and right too.

9:54 Biden follows suit, but points out that Bush “abject failure” by letting Hamas take over Gaza.

9:55 After Biden delivers withering attack on Bush, Palin responds with mushy-headed generalities about “change is coming.”  Sounds kinda foolish.

Biden: where are the specifics?  Where’s the difference between Bush and McCain?

9:57 Palin says she's for surge in Afghanistan, so that's a difference too.

9:58 Biden says commanding general in Afghanistan says its more complex.  Points out how much more money spent in Iraq than Afghanistan.

live blogging debate, part II

10 Palin and Biden get into argument about exactly what generals in Afghanistan said.  Makes Palin sound more expert- not that I have any idea who’s right.   

10:02 Biden rattles off a lot of foreign policy interventions.

10:03 Palin calls Biden a flip-flopper, saying he supported “John McCain’s strategy.”  Biden says he was never that wild about war, but voted to authorize war only to give Bush negotiating leverage.  

10:07 Palin starts to repeat herself about McCain consulting with commanders, etc.  

10:07 Biden asked what he would do differently from Obama if he became president.  He says he would favor Obama’s policies on every major issue, making slip of tongue:  saying Obama favors “reinstating the middle class.”  Reinstating them to what?  

Palin says “We’re a team of mavericks.  We’re not going to agree on everything.”  Nice answer!

Though lines about bringing “reality on Wasilla Main Street” to Washington lays it on a bit thick.

10:10 Biden goes back to “Bush/McCain” lines and talks about how “people in my neighborhood get it.”  Um, your “neighborhood” is four-acre houses.  Some neighborhood.

10:11 Palin says “there you go again, pointing backwards.”  Are we that dumb?   On the one hand, they are “mavericks.”  On the other hand, they are scared to distance themselves from Bush on substantive issues.  Not exactly William J. Bryan running against Grover Cleveland (or to use a modern analogy, if Tancredo or Paul were the nominee they’d be taking Bush to the woodshed).

10:13 Palin says “Of course I know what the Vice President does!”  I doubt it.  

This debate is already starting to feel too long.  Basically an exchange of sound bites, both candidates trying hard to avoid putting foot in mouth and mostly succeeding.

10:18 Ifill asks dumb question about “what is your achilles heel”?

Palin brags about knowledge of everything - we used to be poor, blah blah blah.  (Um aren’t they millionaires?)  Brags about American exceptionalism- what does this have to do with her experience?  Nothing but it distracts- she’s cunning.

Biden talks about how he was a single parent and he wasn’t always rich.

Yep, those millionaires were both born in log cabins! Feh.

10:21 Palin says “John McCain has been the consummate maverick.”  Yeah, he sure showed that on the bailout bill (sarcasm) (And yes, Obama was just as much of an un-maverick!)

Great Palin slip of tongue about McCain- “He is the man that we need to leave”

10:23 Biden- McCain not a maverick on “things that matter to people’s lives”.  Hits hard on budget, health care, education.  Rat-at-tat-tat of good sound bites!  When I listen to Biden I feel like I could be listening to Walter Mondale in 1976.

10:24 Ifill asks if you have ever changed your mind on a serious issue.  Biden cites Bork (i.e. that ideology of judge justifies voting no).   Palin says she never has on a major issue because “we found a way to work together” in Alaska- probably true but not because she’s so great, just because she’s only been governor a year!

Closing statements-

Palin: We’ll “fight for America”, “fight for the middle class”, “fight for freedom”.   McCain “fights for you.”  In a way, gets to key difference- Obama the lover, McCain the fighter.

Biden: focuses on whether people can pay the bills, health care, education blah blah blah.   

 

My conclusion: on substance Biden seemed stronger.  But Palin will probably be the "winner", based on low expectations.

One of NBC's pundits says debate basically a tie. 

Live blogging Palin speech

Since the Palin speech is the first time many Americans have been exposed to her, I thought I would try live blogging it.

10:35 Mentions son in Iraq- seems slightly exploitative (compared to McCain and Biden who have children in Iraq but have softpedaled it).

10:37 Talks about special needs children- nice soft touch in mentioning Downs Syndrome kid. 

Am noticing Huck and Rudy right behind her.  Wonder what they are thinking- Huck must feel vindicated at some level; Palin seems kind of similar to him ideologically (socially conservative, but not a taxophobe). 

10:40 Compares herself to Truman.  Truman had ten years in the Senate- twice as many yrs in statewide office as Obama and her COMBINED.

10:41 Talked about how people in small towns are "always proud of America." Wonder what Rudy feels about that!  She seems to be laying it on a bit thick - not that that will hurt her, since just as every bride is beautiful, every acceptance speech is beautiful.  That's just how politics is. 

10:43 "A small town mayor is like being a community organizer, except she has actual responsibilities."  Laying on it a bit thick isn't she?  Seems kind of childish.

10:45 Attacks "media" for considering her "unqualified."  Whine, whine, whine. 

10:46 Disses the alleged media but she's "not going to Washington to seek their good opinion."  Whine, whine, whine.   Oh, poor me!

10:48 Talks about her reforms in Alaska- putting "luxury jet" on EBay (nice line), ditches governor's personal chef, etc.  Not sure how much this checks out, but sounds good. 

10:49 Praises vetoes in nonspecific way.  Brags about surplus, half a billion dollars in vetoes.  

10:50 Claims opposition to bridge to nowhere.  Wasn't she for it before she was against it?

10:50 Brags about sending $ to taxpayers, doesn't mention she got it by taxing oil companies. 

10:52 Energy independence blah blah blah. 

10:53 Stands up for drilling- "The fact that it isn't going to solve our problems is no excuse for doing nothing at all."  Sounds good, but party line, and some plausibility problems given that oil is sold in world markets and takes a long time to get out of the ground.

10:55 Hits Obama for not having authored "a major law." Kind of a cheap shot given that Republicans can filibuster anything. 

10:56 Good line about "styrofoam Greek columns hauled back to studio lot"- I think they look kind of cheap myself. 

10:57 Hits Obama on the usual stuff- some good hits (taxes), some cheap shots ("worried someone won't read them [the terrorists] their rights."

I wonder if she is thinking that there is some contradiction between smaller government and war on everyone all the time everywhere. 

She's definitely not pernsickety about being attack dog.  But that's the Vice President's job.

10:59 Taxes blah blah blah.  Leaves the field wide open for Obama's promise of middle tax class cuts- if Obama wants to raise the issue.

10:59 Says "there are those who use change to promote their careers and those who use their careers to promote change." Sounds kind of low road to me- not exactly a successor to Reagan. 

11:04 Plays POW card.  Talks about McCain as an "upright and honorable man".  Praises him for compassion, wisdom, etc. from his POW experience.  Am unfortunately starting to get bored. 

11:08 Ends on high note- says McCain a "great man", "God bless America."

Live blogging Palin speech

Since the Palin speech is the first time many Americans have been exposed to her, I thought I would try live blogging it.

10:35 Mentions son in Iraq- seems slightly exploitative (compared to McCain and Biden who have children in Iraq but have softpedaled it).

10:37 Talks about special needs children- nice soft touch in mentioning Downs Syndrome kid. 

Am noticing Huck and Rudy right behind her.  Wonder what they are thinking- Huck must feel vindicated at some level; Palin seems kind of similar to him ideologically (socially conservative, but not a taxophobe). 

10:40 Compares herself to Truman.  Truman had ten years in the Senate- twice as many yrs in statewide office as Obama and her COMBINED.

10:41 Talked about how people in small towns are "always proud of America." Wonder what Rudy feels about that!  She seems to be laying it on a bit thick - not that that will hurt her, since just as every bride is beautiful, every acceptance speech is beautiful.  That's just how politics is. 

10:43 "A small town mayor is like being a community organizer, except she has actual responsibilities."  Laying on it a bit thick isn't she?  Seems kind of childish.

10:45 Attacks "media" for considering her "unqualified."  Whine, whine, whine. 

10:46 Disses the alleged media but she's "not going to Washington to seek their good opinion."  Whine, whine, whine.   Oh, poor me!

10:48 Talks about her reforms in Alaska- putting "luxury jet" on EBay (nice line), ditches governor's personal chef, etc.  Not sure how much this checks out, but sounds good. 

10:49 Praises vetoes in nonspecific way.  Brags about surplus, half a billion dollars in vetoes.  

10:50 Claims opposition to bridge to nowhere.  Wasn't she for it before she was against it?

10:50 Brags about sending $ to taxpayers, doesn't mention she got it by taxing oil companies. 

10:52 Energy independence blah blah blah. 

10:53 Stands up for drilling- "The fact that it isn't going to solve our problems is no excuse for doing nothing at all."  Sounds good, but party line, and some plausibility problems given that oil is sold in world markets and takes a long time to get out of the ground.

10:55 Hits Obama for not having authored "a major law." Kind of a cheap shot given that Republicans can filibuster anything. 

10:56 Good line about "styrofoam Greek columns hauled back to studio lot"- I think they look kind of cheap myself. 

10:57 Hits Obama on the usual stuff- some good hits (taxes), some cheap shots ("worried someone won't read them [the terrorists] their rights."

I wonder if she is thinking that there is some contradiction between smaller government and war on everyone all the time everywhere. 

She's definitely not pernsickety about being attack dog.  But that's the Vice President's job.

10:59 Taxes blah blah blah.  Leaves the field wide open for Obama's promise of middle tax class cuts- if Obama wants to raise the issue.

10:59 Says "there are those who use change to promote their careers and those who use their careers to promote change." Sounds kind of low road to me- not exactly a successor to Reagan. 

11:04 Plays POW card.  Talks about McCain as an "upright and honorable man".  Praises him for compassion, wisdom, etc. from his POW experience.  Am unfortunately starting to get bored. 

11:08 Ends on high note- says McCain a "great man", "God bless America."

a meditation on full buses

Tuesday morning I took the SS-9 from Greyhound (since I went to my parents in Atlanta for the weekend) to Florida Coastal.  Much to my surprise, the bus was totally full.  I'd been on full buses once or twice since moving to Jax but never seen the SS-9 full.

What was the deal?  Here's my explanation: normally I take the SS-9 northbound (Mandarin towards downtown) in the morning; since the SS-9 begins in relatively affluent South Mandarin, not too many people take the SS-9 from suburbia to downtown in the morning (especially after rush hour; I usually board at 9:20 or 10:20, long after most 9 to 5 commuters are at work).   When I take it southbound from downtown (maybe 6 to 7ish), it is more crowded - but still, the main ridership is comprised of car-owning suburbanites. 

By contrast, reverse commuters* from the North and West sides (who are more likely to be carless and/or low income) are more likely to go southbound away from downtown in the morning and northbound at night.  Since low income bus ridership is higher, it would make sense that morning bus ridership is higher for reverse commuters than for downtown workers, and thus higher as you go south from downtown to Mandarin.

So what? Is there any point to this story?

Yes. For as long as I've lived in Jax, I've heard people whining "Why should we have more buses if the ones we have are empty?"  But my story suggests that even a bus that is empty at some point is full for part of its route.  My SS-9 began (full) downtown, then got less and less populated as it dropped off customers in Baymeadows and Mandarin. 

Then it terminated (probably empty) in South Mandarin and started going north- but it wasn't necessarily full going towards downtown, because it dropped off customers as well as picking them up. 

Once it got downtown, its only remaining riders were those who had business downtown.  So as it was heading north into downtown it might not have been that crowded. 

But once it went to the main downtown bus terminal, it picked up a bunch of southbound riders, became relatively full with reverse commuters, and the cycle began again.  So I suspect if you were downtown and you saw the bus entering downtown it looked pretty empty except during rush hour.  But leaving downtown (especially during rush hour) it was probably not so empty.

*By "reverse commuters" I mean people heading away from downtown towards suburban jobs. 

Facts we know that just aren't so

How many times have you heard that Jax has the "highest murder rate of any city in the state"? 

I got curious and went to the FBI's crime statistics website

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/2007prelim/table4co_id.htm

Here are the 2007 numbers:

                Population      Murders   Murders per 100,000 people

Jax         797,350            123            15.4

Miami     410,252             79              19.25

Orlando 224,417              49             21.8

 

As you can see, both Orlando and Miami are "ahead" of us.  We're no. 3!  We're no. 3!