a meditation on full buses

Tuesday morning I took the SS-9 from Greyhound (since I went to my parents in Atlanta for the weekend) to Florida Coastal.  Much to my surprise, the bus was totally full.  I'd been on full buses once or twice since moving to Jax but never seen the SS-9 full.

What was the deal?  Here's my explanation: normally I take the SS-9 northbound (Mandarin towards downtown) in the morning; since the SS-9 begins in relatively affluent South Mandarin, not too many people take the SS-9 from suburbia to downtown in the morning (especially after rush hour; I usually board at 9:20 or 10:20, long after most 9 to 5 commuters are at work).   When I take it southbound from downtown (maybe 6 to 7ish), it is more crowded - but still, the main ridership is comprised of car-owning suburbanites. 

By contrast, reverse commuters* from the North and West sides (who are more likely to be carless and/or low income) are more likely to go southbound away from downtown in the morning and northbound at night.  Since low income bus ridership is higher, it would make sense that morning bus ridership is higher for reverse commuters than for downtown workers, and thus higher as you go south from downtown to Mandarin.

So what? Is there any point to this story?

Yes. For as long as I've lived in Jax, I've heard people whining "Why should we have more buses if the ones we have are empty?"  But my story suggests that even a bus that is empty at some point is full for part of its route.  My SS-9 began (full) downtown, then got less and less populated as it dropped off customers in Baymeadows and Mandarin. 

Then it terminated (probably empty) in South Mandarin and started going north- but it wasn't necessarily full going towards downtown, because it dropped off customers as well as picking them up. 

Once it got downtown, its only remaining riders were those who had business downtown.  So as it was heading north into downtown it might not have been that crowded. 

But once it went to the main downtown bus terminal, it picked up a bunch of southbound riders, became relatively full with reverse commuters, and the cycle began again.  So I suspect if you were downtown and you saw the bus entering downtown it looked pretty empty except during rush hour.  But leaving downtown (especially during rush hour) it was probably not so empty.

*By "reverse commuters" I mean people heading away from downtown towards suburban jobs. 

Facts we know that just aren't so

How many times have you heard that Jax has the "highest murder rate of any city in the state"? 

I got curious and went to the FBI's crime statistics website

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/2007prelim/table4co_id.htm

Here are the 2007 numbers:

                Population      Murders   Murders per 100,000 people

Jax         797,350            123            15.4

Miami     410,252             79              19.25

Orlando 224,417              49             21.8

 

As you can see, both Orlando and Miami are "ahead" of us.  We're no. 3!  We're no. 3! 

Facts we know that just aren't so

How many times have you heard that Jax has the "highest murder rate of any city in the state"? 

I got curious and went to the FBI's crime statistics website

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/2007prelim/table4co_id.htm

Here are the 2007 numbers:

                Population      Murders   Murders per 100,000 people

Jax         797,350            123            15.4

Miami     410,252             79              19.25

Orlando 224,417              49             21.8

 

As you can see, both Orlando and Miami are "ahead" of us.  We're no. 3!  We're no. 3! 

Facts we know that just aren't so

How many times have you heard that Jax has the "highest murder rate of any city in the state"? 

I got curious and went to the FBI's crime statistics website

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/2007prelim/table4co_id.htm

Here are the 2007 numbers:

                Population      Murders   Murders per 100,000 people

Jax         797,350            123            15.4

Miami     410,252             79              19.25

Orlando 224,417              49             21.8

 

As you can see, both Orlando and Miami are "ahead" of us.  We're no. 3!  We're no. 3! 

Facts we know that just aren't so

How many times have you heard that Jax has the "highest murder rate of any city in the state"? 

I got curious and went to the FBI's crime statistics website

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/2007prelim/table4co_id.htm

Here are the 2007 numbers:

                Population      Murders   Murders per 100,000 people

Jax         797,350            123            15.4

Miami     410,252             79              19.25

Orlando 224,417              49             21.8

 

As you can see, both Orlando and Miami are "ahead" of us.  We're no. 3!  We're no. 3! 

Not about Jax (blogging about law professors' conference)

Went to SEALS (Southeast Association of Law Schools) conference last week.  Some highlights:

 

1. Impact of Westlaw- Access to information leveled; small firms with small libraries have more information.  Also, digest [primary system of print research, based on books of cases called “digests”]  structures inquiry, limits cases people find.  Westlaw search means more of a diversity of arguments, as people are more likely to find unpublished, obscure or moribund cases.  Generally a bit more open-endedness in law; less likely everyone will find same cases. 

 

2. Some real left wing stuff: one on juveniles as informants, asserting that they shouldn’t be police informants because (under death penalty precedent) they are too immature to be executed, thus too immature to be informants.  Then someone asked: “But aren’t 17 year olds mature enough to be sentenced as adults?”  Speaker responded “I’m against that too.”  Reminds me how far I am from the real academic Left.  Fundamentally, I really, really, really value social order.  They don’t (or perhaps just disagree with me about how we get there).

3. Property rights- A speaker critiqued “takings” legislation (requiring govt. to compensate landowners whenever regulation reduced property value by restricting development) by analogy to old property case of Pierson v. Post.  In Pierson, hunter chases fox, but is held not to have really owned it unless he killed it.  Similarly, someone trying to develop chases development, but shouldn’t be compensated for loss of opportunity until he has “captured” use by getting a building permit. 

4. Restrictive covenants and sex offenders- Some covenants ban all sex offenders.  To run with the land (i.e. bind people not parties to original covenant, as land is sold again and again) covenant must “touch and concern” land.  Does this covenant affect property values enough to touch and concern land? Law unclear.  I think so- but covenant may be against public property as unreasonable if so widespread they have no place to live.  We don’t want sex offenders to be homeless- if they are, its harder to find them if they commit additional crimes. 

5. Panel on US News rankings- Since part time students aren’t counted in schools’ LSAT (Part of rankings) schools game the system by admitting weaker students as transfers and part timers.  Some juicy examples of how schools shifted tiers merely by switching full time/part time balance.

 6.  Speech on statutes requiring government to “consider” factors (especially National Environmental Policy Act, which requires government to consider environmental impact of actions)-  all I remember is great line: “A county without a squad car has no speed limit.”

7.  Also a neat webpage on climate change litigation: www.climatecasechart.com  

 8.  Interesting article on how international treaty governing civilians in warfare is rigged in favor of terrorists: protocol (which US has not signed on) provides that civilians engaged in hostilities (e.g. terrorists) can only be targeted while actively engaged in hostilities.  Even though US hasn’t signed on, some risk it could be treated as customary international law.

9.  Interesting presentation on how web pages can be archived for posterity.  There is an archive (www.archive.org ) but it is pretty erratic – archive often down, lots of people opt out, copyright law unclear enough that it might be illegal

Interesting panel on nature of scholarship- some commenters favored “Big Tent” approach- but felt constrained at their own institutions (e.g. feeling like they had to publish only in their specialty, only long articles, etc.)  

10. Interesting presentation on bar exams- While multistate bar almost universal (48 states) as is MPRE (47), multistate performance and essay tests much less so (34 and 22 respectively). 

Memorable urban [and suburban!] experiences

Took Greyhound to the Southeastern Association and Law Schools conference in Lantana, Fla. - definitely some interesting experiences:

Began by taking bus during the day (last Sunday).  We had an hour and a half layover in Orlando, and I saw what might be the future of American suburbia (well, some of American suburbia anyhow!).  The Greyhound station is definitely in sprawl- 4 miles from downtown, with 6 lane roads, single family houses, and the usual big parking lots.  But unlike the stereotypical suburb, this area was kind of ghetto-ish.  I could see at least one boarded-up home from across the street, saw a couple of people who looked like they might be homeless, was asked for money once or twice.   On the positive side, one of the strip malls had a police precinct office; by a not-so-odd coincidence, it had a decent amount of commerce (including an interesting Jamaican restaurant and a pretty well-stocked dollar store).

On the way back, I had to get to West Palm Beach's Greyhound station (at its commuter rail station).  First I took a county bus (PalmTran) from Lantana to West Palm.  The buses had something that definitely qualifies as "Best Practices in Public Transit"- the bus had numerous copies of "Bus Books" listing every bus schedule in the county.  By contrast, in Jacksonville all you usually can find on the bus is the schedule of the route you're riding - and in most other transit systems not even that!

West Palm itself is a mixed bag: it has two very nice new urban developments downtown, chain-dominated CityPlace and funkier Clematis Street.  But between the two, and between both and the train/bus station, lies a fearsome abomination of desolation.  I walked several blocks down the western, not-so-funky part of Clematis to the station, and for some blocks saw not a single soul, not even a panhandler.  (I suppose I should have gone somewhere and waited for a cab, but it looked like the sky was about to open up in a thunderstorm so I hurried - I figured any scary person out there probably had already found shelter!)

My Folio Weekly article for this week
http://works.bepress.com/lewyn/50/

my latest Folio Weekly article
http://works.bepress.com/lewyn/49/

Coming home to the Republicans

I have been a Republican all my life, and even held minor party office in some of the places I've lived.

On the other hand, I've had my issues with the current Administration, and with the national Republicans generally.  (In fact, I have occasionally been known to refer to myself as a "swing voter.")

So when I was asked to run for precinct committee, I was kind of conflicted.  But I said yes anyhow.

So why would I publicly identify myself with the Republican Party, in the hour of its greatest disgrace since 1974?

1.  My economic views are pretty consistent with what Republicans used to believe: balance the budget, at least in good times.  Be a little more skeptical of government programs than the Democrats, and a little less skeptical than the Libertarians.

2.  The most successful municipal governance in my lifetime was that of a Republican, Rudy Giuliani in NYC.  And I do think I'm a social conservative in the Rudy Giuliani sense, though not in the Karl Rove sense.  That is to say: I prioritize social order over equality, and sometimes even more over liberty. 

3.  The last politician who inspired me was a Republican (Ron Paul). And I think my foreign policy views have moved in his direction, though I'm certainly not as radically noninterventionist as he.

4. Intellectually, the Republicans are where the action is in American politics; the Democrats seem to just react to Republican mistakes rather than setting the agenda themselves, even under President Clinton.  Has any Democratic presidential nominee since 1984 stood for anything to speak of? Well, maybe something, but not very much.  I don't think Obama is an exception.

5.  And where I live (in one-party Jacksonville, in basically-Republican Florida) the Republicans are basically where the action is, period.   

 

 

Bus terminal: pros and cons

Yesterday I went to a hearing on JTA's new bus terminal proposal.

JTA is planning to build a big new bus terminal on the west side of downtown, and to reroute a lot of buses there instead of having them run around downtown.

There are some positives to this idea: (1) it may include Amtrak, which really should be downtown;

2) if you are transferring from non-downtown point A to non-downtown point B, you probably want the bus to spend as little time downtown as possible.

Nevertheless, I don't like the idea in its current incarnation.  Transit's chief market, like it or not, is the suburb-to-downtown commuter.  And a suburb-to-downtown commuter doesn't want to

(a) transfer to the Skyway or trolley to get to work; or

(b) have to walk ten blocks to get to work.

Instead, JTA should try to provide these commuters with something close to door-to-door service.  If JTA has any "choice" riders (i.e. people who can drive to work but don't) it is these people.  Lose those suburb-to-downtown commuters, and you cripple your ridership base.

To learn more contact whart@jtafla.com

The Skyway actually works

Today, I rode the skyway (Jacksonville's downtown-only monorail) to a lunch on Jacksonville's South Bank (the south side of downtown).   It was actually fairly packed; I saw one or two railcars with four or so people on it- the maximum a car can have with everyone sitting down.

Evidently the common claim that "no one rides the Skyway" is not true.

Of course, this claim is not dissimilar to a common statement about our admittedly anemic transit system: "No one ever rides the [bus/Skyway/whatever]... I look at these buses and they are always empty."

In fact, sometimes they aren't.  But even when they are, it doesn't mean what you think it means: buses are constantly loading and unloading people, so if you don't see a ton of people on the bus, maybe some of the passengers have already gotten off, or haven't gotten on yet.

And of course, if the buses were full people would be complaining about how full they are.

For shame!

Jacksonville rated America's least walkable large city:

 

http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Article2.aspx?cp-documentid=8673581&GT1=35000

 

Neighborhood by neighborhood stats at

 http://www.walkscore.com/rankings/Jacksonville

 

 

Greyhound more fuel-efficient than Amtrak
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/363708_transit20.html

As a regular Greyhound rider (from Jax to Atlanta where my parents live) I was quite happy to learn this.

article that I was originally planning to put on Folio Weekly ...

 - but that wound up being more suitable for this blog.

 (reprinted at 

http://www.metrojacksonville.com/content/view/808/ )

NOT SO DRIVER-FRIENDLY by Michael Lewyn

Commentators on transportation policy sometimes write as if drivers and nondrivers are locked in a zero-sum game- that is to say, what benefits one group always hurts the other.   For example, I recently read a book that repeatedly referred to public transit and other pro-nondriver policies as “anti-automobile.” .
But after driving for a year here in Jacksonville, I have discovered that policies designed to speed up automobile traffic are not good for all drivers all the time, even if they are bad for nondrivers.
For example, San Jose Blvd. (the main street of my Mandarin neighborhood) is up to nine lanes wide in some spots.  Such wide streets are of course obnoxious to pedestrians, who have to cross twice (once to the median, once from the median to the other side of the street) unless they are very fleet of foot indeed.
But is this sort of road good for drivers? Yes if you are a long distance commuter, just passing through San Jose to get to their exurban home in St. John's County.
But what if you actually want to shop on San Jose? Even if you know exactly what you are looking for, you have to plan your trip by getting in the center lane (if you know your shop is on the left).  Then you have to make a left turn across several lanes of fast-moving traffic.   Even if you are lucky enough to be looking for a shop on the right lane, you have to remember to get in the right line a few minutes in advance.
If you don't know where you are going you are much worse off - for example, if you've heard about some interesting shop or restaurant on San Jose. If San Jose is uncongested, you have to drive so fast in order to keep up with the traffic that it is very difficult to find the shop you are looking for and still not be crushed by someone else's vehicle. Often, you will have overshot your intended destination by the time you know where you are.
And if the roads are congested, you face another problem: even if you do not have to drive 50 mph to keep up with the traffic, you will have a difficult time switching lanes, because the lanes to the left and the right of you will be clogged with traffic..
By contrast, if streets were narrower you might not be able to drive as fast (bad news) but you could switch lanes to get to your destination more easily (good news) since there would be fewer lanes to cross.
Jacksonville also requires many shops to be set back 20 or more feet from the street. In some ways, this policy is good for drivers; driving is obviously less of a hassle if you can park in front of a shop.  But this policy too creates problems for drivers.  The further the shop is from the street, the less visible its street number is. So if you are searching for a small restaurant at 9854 San Jose Boulevard, and that restaurant is 20 or 30 feet from the street, you might not be able to see the shop’s address in time to switch lanes.
Our city also speeds up traffic by creating large numbers of right-turn lanes. These lanes are not particularly helpful for nondrivers, because they effectively widen the road.
But separate right-turn lanes can create problems for drivers as well. Jacksonville is full of turn lanes that end in some sort of concrete barrier. If you know exactly where to turn these barriers are safe; you know enough not to get into the turn lane until right before your destination. But if you are not intimately familar with every inch of a commercial street (especially at night) the turn lanes turn driving into an adventure. Several types, I have gotten into a turn lane thinking I was in the right place to turn - but in fact I am turning one intersection too early. As a result, I almost ran into the concrete barrier.
Residential street design can also make Jacksonville driving an adventure.  In most neighborhoods built in recent decades, residential streets tend to be cul-de-sacs instead of grids- that is, no street connects with more than one or two other streets.   Even commercial streets do not always run from one end of town to another; for example, St. Augustine Road dead-ends at its intersection with San Jose Blvd. instead of running all the way from downtown to the county line.
Neighborhoods dominated by cul-de-sacs are good news for drivers in their role as homeowners: if your street only intersects with one other street, there will be fewer cars on it, and you will have less traffic noise to put up with.   
But if every homeowner lives on a cul-de-sac, drivers have a problem. Suppose you live on a residential street in Mandarin, and are trying to reach your job in Baymeadows.  If Mandarin had the same kind of grid street network as Riverside, you would have a wide variety of routes to choose from.  But because of the predominance of cul-de-sacs, there is only one way to go north if you live in Mandarin:  you have to use San Jose Blvd. for at least some of your trip.   Because virtually all neighborhood trips are forced onto one street, that street can become highly congested during rush hour.    In sum, cul-de-sacs are like tax evasion: fun if you are the only person to do it, not so good if everyone else does it.
 
So is Jacksonville a driver-friendly city or a driver-unfriendly city?  Yes and yes- depending on where you want to drive and what time of day you are driving.

Learning to cherish downtown

Dumb way to promote smart growth

I just got something in the mail from the Florida Association of Realtors about a conference on Smart Growth.  Ironically, the conference was scheduled to be at the World Golf Village, an area near St. Augustine that isn't really accessible via public transit.  Oops- not quite so smart!

(PS The conference was canceled due to lack of interest; I guess I wasn't the only person who thought the location was too remote).

What I have read so far this year (reviews on amazon.com and Facebook)
1.  Best Laid Plans, O’Toole
2. Torah Through Time, Cherry
3.  Between the Yeshiva World and Modern Orthodoxy: The Life and Works of Rabbi Yehiel Jacob Weinberg, 1884-1966, Shapiro            
4.  The Documentary Hypothesis and The Composition of the Pentateuch, Cassuto
5.  Peace not Apartheid, Carter
6.  The Absolutely Worst Places to Live in America, Dave Gilmartin
7.  Rybczynski, Last Harvest
8. Road to Ruin, Dom Nozzi
9.  The Provincials, Evans
10.  Schacht, An Introduction To Islamic Law
11.  Chabon, The Yiddish Policemen’s Union
12.  Sacks, The Dignity of Difference
13.  Angel, Foundations of Sephardic Spirituality
14.  Levi, The Periodic Table
15.  Armstrong, The Battle for God
16.  Obama, Dreams from My Father
17.  Rosenbaum, The Holocaust and Halakhah
18.  Sartre, Anti-Semite and Jew
19.  Scholem, The Messianic Idea In Judaism
20.  Obama, The Audacity of Hope
21.  Kushner, Who Needs God?

CNU blog post: statistics on overregulation....

http://www.cnu.org/node/1871

Some economists have actually tried to measure whether some metro areas regulate development more than others (rather than just relying on the generalization that anyplace with high housing prices MUST have more regulation)- results linked to in the post above.

Most interesting finding- areas that regulate sprawl aren't always the most regulatory; Portland is somewhere in the middle rather than being one of the most regulation-happy regions.

Well put!

Chesterton On Progressives And Conservatives