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Lewyn Addresses America
Thursday, 20 January 2005
counterargument: is there really a SS crisis?
It could be argued that there really is a Social Security crisis because Clinton said so when he was President.

This is one situation where the "your guy says so" argument doesn't really work. Why not? For two reasons.

First, whoever is in power has a motive to exaggerate Social Security's problems, because the perception of "crisis" will increase support for any loony scheme to fix it (either on the Left or on the Right). If I am a conservative who wants to abolish or privatize Social Security, hollering "Crisis!" will encourage people to take my solution seriously. If I am a liberal who wants to finance Social Security out of general revenues (thus freeing politicians to raise Social Security benefits without being constrained by the Social Security trust fund's relatively limited revenues) hollering "Crisis!" will encourage people to take my solution seriously.

Indeed,a recent National Review article discusses President Clinton's motives for touting a "Social Security crisis" in the late 1990s.

(Does that mean that if Democrats ever have a unified congressional majority they will be trying to "fix" an arguably imaginary "Social Security crisis?" I absolutely believe so.)

Second, in the late 1990s, the budget was in balance. So Social Security's long-term fiscal problems might have looked more intimidating. By contrast, the overall federal debt is so out of control that even if the Social Security fund does start to run a deficit, its deficit doesn't seem (at least to me) to be quite as significant.

And third, I believe one should never, ever, ever underestimate the Democrats' ability to do things that are against their long-term interests.

Posted by lewyn at 1:24 PM EST
Updated: Thursday, 20 January 2005 1:45 PM EST

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